How we score conviction

After every other piece of analysis lands - the financials, the annual report, the concall, the walk-the-talk, the red flags, the valuation band - we produce a single number called conviction.

Conviction is between 0 and 1. The higher the number, the more confident we are that the analysis is reliable and the company's picture is clear. It is not a buy/sell signal. It's a signal about how much weight you should give the rest of our analysis.

What goes into it

Conviction is high when several different threads of evidence point the same way:

The financial statements all agree (P&L, balance sheet, cash flow tell the same story)
The walk-the-talk track record is consistent
Red flags are absent or low-severity
Management commentary in the concall aligns with what we see in the numbers
The sector is one we have enough comparison points for
The data we have is fresh (recent quarterly result, recent annual report, recent concall)

How we score conviction

After every other piece of analysis lands - the financials, the annual report, the concall, the walk-the-talk, the red flags, the valuation band - we produce a single number called conviction.

What goes into it

Conviction is high when several different threads of evidence point the same way:

The financial statements all agree (P&L, balance sheet, cash flow tell the same story)
The walk-the-talk track record is consistent
Red flags are absent or low-severity
Management commentary in the concall aligns with what we see in the numbers
The sector is one we have enough comparison points for
The data we have is fresh (recent quarterly result, recent annual report, recent concall)